Jumping on the bandwagon

You're probably making this face right now.

You’re making this face right now.

You have a problem. You love basketball, but your favorite team probably won’t make it to the playoffs.

If you’re a fan of the Sacramento Kings, New Orleans Hornets or Cleveland Cavaliers, you knew this moment would come. That’s good, people tend to underestimate the importance of acceptance at times like these. And given your team’s history of mismanaging personnel/acquiring post-prime talent, a lifetime of grief has enabled you to reach this stage with relative ease. It probably led to less stress in your life as a sports fan. Maybe you took up cooking or yoga in the time you didn’t spend  watching your defense blow double-digit leads. That’s great, really. You look healthier.

If you’re a fan of perennial playoff contenders like the Los Angeles Lakers (it was a DIRTY PLAY!), Dallas Mavericks or Portland Trail Blazers, this is probably a difficult time for you. But you know what? That’s okay too. It may sting right now, but NBA seasons are like goldfish — when they die, you flush them down the toilet and get another one when the county fair comes back around in the fall. Unless there’s a lockout. Or a kid dies on the tilt-a-whirl. Or you live in Sacramento.

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Kyrie Irving terrifies me

Cleveland does not need this.

Not that it particularly matters. It would take a miracle for the Cavaliers to make up the 12 games that separate them from the 8th seed Milwaukee Bucks with only 19 games to play. Even if Jesus came down from on-high and graced the banks of the Cuyahoga with a benediction, all it would do is grant the Cavs an opportunity to lose to the Miami Heat. At that point, like a modern-day Job, Dan Gilbert would wonder if God would save us from LeBron James and the Miami Heat. 

Nevertheless, Kyrie Irving’s most recent injury is terrible news. Not just because he plays for a hapless but hopeful Cavs franchise, but also because of the talent he has displayed in two injury-shortened seasons. The combination of efficient shooting, passing and play-making Irving offers is incredibly rare, and not really comparable to more traditional elite point guards like Chris Paul or pre-Brooklyn Deron Williams.

His strengths as a shooter and passer resemble Phoenix Suns-era Steve Nash, but Nash was never forced to be his team’s primary scoring threat, as Irving has been over the last two years (you could extend the comparison to include their deficiencies on the defensive end, but more on that later).

Also, unlike Nash, Irving can move explosively to the rim. Even though he’s relied on the three ball and his mid-range jumpshot, if he manages to harness that ability to drive the lane in the next two to three years, he’ll clearly be one of the most effective offensive players in the league.

In a lot of ways, he already is. In 100 career games, Irving has averaged 20.7 points and 5.5 assists per outing. His .467 field goal percentage skews low, but that’s only because he takes an inordinate number of three point attempts (4.1 per game). His career effective field goal percentage, which takes into account the added value of the three ball, is .518. That level of efficiency ranks slightly below that of veterans like Dwayne Wade, Stephen Curry and Manu Ginobili.

And the best part is, he’s efficient from just about everywhere on the floor.

As you can see, Irving is effective from just about anywhere on the floor

As you can see, Irving is effective from just about anywhere on the floor

Fortunately, I had a chance to catch Irving in person earlier this year at the Barclays Center (believe it or not, Brooklyn Nets-Cleveland Cavaliers tickets were cheap to come by), and Irving put on a clinic against an above-average Nets’ defense.

Despite his reputation as a deep threat and mid-range shooter, Kyrie also showed a remarkable amount of creativity in driving through Brooklyn’s perimeter players and big men. 13 of his 19 shots came from within the paint, and those drives sent him to the line 14 times, where he shot 100 percent on the night.

Of course, even in Irving’s best outings, the Cavaliers are still the Cavaliers. The Nets won by double digits. But Irving’s 35 points and 8 assists kept the game close through the second half. But Irving’s presence on the court has been worth approximately 6.1 points per 100 possessions over the course of his career, according to Basketball-Reference.com. Suffice it to say, the Cavaliers are a terrible team without Kyrie Irving.

One area where he Irving needs to improve is on defense. But surround him with a few stoppers, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he eventually leads a team to a title.

Hopefully, injuries don’t stand in the way.

Roy Hibbert’s (not really) ugly contract

hibbert

Like sands through the hourglass, so are the games (not) started by overpaid players.

Every 2 point, 4 foul Andris Biedrins outing, every Gerald Wallace turnover, every Andrew Bynum haircut — there are countless examples of mis-evaluated NBA players who have signed franchise-breaking contracts (or subjected themselves to franchise-breaking trades), yet failed to perform by almost every conceivable metric*.

With that in mind — why is Roy Hibbert’s name on Bill Simmons’ short-list of  the NBA’s worst contracts?

In July, the then 25 year old signed a four year, $58 million contract after a breakout, All Star 2011-2012 season in which Pacers came within two games of reaching the NBA Finals. The contract, which includes a fourth year player option, only extends through Hibbert’s eighth season, when he’ll be just 29 years old.

Within the context of Simmons’ article, Hibbert is listed as a “Category 5: Overpaid But Undeniably Productive Guy”, which would be a fair assessment if he were considered merely productive. It’s a fair assessment if you look at his boxscore. His season average of 10.4 points and 7.9 rebounds per game are not the hallmarks of anyone’s idea of an “elite” NBA center, and certainly not if those 10.4 points are coming off .430 shooting.*

But Roy Hibbert isn’t just “productive” player. He’s actually one of the best defensive players in the league, as Simmons’ Grantland colleague Kirk Goldsberry explained in a paper presented at MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference (Simmons did link to this paper).

From Goldsberry’s report: “Overall, NBA shooters make 49.7% of their field goal attempts when qualifying interior defender is within 5 feet of the basket; however, this number drops to 38% when either Hibbert or Sanders are within 5 feet”.

To give that statistic a little more context, opposing players shoot only 38.2 percent from close range when Roy Hibbert is standing within 5 feet of the basket. The least efficient team in the NBA from less than 5 feet is the Charlotte Bobcats, and even the lowly Bobcats shoot 52.2 percent from that close to the basket, according to NBA statistics.

Hibbert’s presence on the floor serves as a security blanket for Indiana’s elite perimeter defense — the Pacers hold  shooters 34.5 percent from 20-24 feet, the second lowest percentage in the league behind the Chicago Bulls. With the former Georgetown big man on the floor, the Pacers hold opponents’ effective field goal percentage, which takes into account the added value of three point attempts, to .444, per Basketball-Reference.com, which happens to be less than the lowest team eFG% in the league (Again, Charlotte, with .452).

Even offensively, where he’s struggled this season, Hibbert has improved since the All Star break. After notching an ugly .413 in the first 53 games of the season, Hibbert has shot .542, including an 18 point, 7-of-14 effort against the the defense-centric Chicago Bulls.

Finally, here is a list of the last 10 NBA championship teams, along with their Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possession), per Basketball-Reference.com.

  • 2011-2012: Miami Heat, 92.5 points per game, 4th ranked defense
  • 2010-2011: Dallas Mavericks, 96.0 points per game, 10th ranked defense
  • 2009-2010: Los Angeles Lakers, 101.7 points, 12th ranked defense
  • 2008-2009: Los Angeles Lakers, 99.3 points per game, 14th ranked defense
  • 2007-2008: Boston Celtics, 90.3 points per game, 2nd ranked defense
  • 2006-2007: San Antonio Spurs, 90.1 points per game, 1st ranked defense
  • 2005-2006: Miami Heat, 96.0 points per game, 13th ranked defense
  • 2004-2005: San Antonio Spurs, 88.4 points per game, 1st ranked defense
  • 2003-2004: Detroit Pistons, 84.3 points per game, 2nd ranked defense
  • 2002-2003: San Antonio Spurs, 90.4 points per game, 3rd ranked defense

As you can see, with the exception of the Lakers and 2005-2006 Heat, every team on this list had a top-10 defense, and many of those squads possessed powerful defensive stoppers (Tyson Chandler, Tim Duncan, LeBron James).

The Indiana Pacers  currently field a defense that would be considered the third most effective on the above list, allowing only 89.7 points per 100 possessions from their opponents. If Goldberry’s report is any indication, Roy Hibbert plays a vital role in that defense.

Four years, $58 million? It’s certainly a lot of money, but the Pacers are getting their money’s worth.

*Definitely not the players fault though. As Rashard Lewis once said: “You sign me to a deal, you think I’m going to say, ‘No, I deserve $50 [million] instead of $80 [million]?’ I’m like, ‘Hell, yeah.’ I’m not going to turn it down. You can’t blame the players. If anything, we don’t negotiate the deal. We’ve got agents that negotiate the deals with the team. Y’all need to go talk to the teams and the agents.”

**He does shoot .722 at the stripe this year on 2.3 attempts per game. While that isn’t particularly impressive, it is good enough to eliminate the Hack-a-Shaq strategy many teams deploy against Dwight Howard, DeAndre Jordan and other mediocre free throw shooting centers.

Analysis: MJ Picks Kobe Over LeBron

Michael Jordan, unlike his jeans, will never fade away...

Michael Jordan, unlike his jeans, will never fade away…

Michael Jordan injected himself into the Kobe Bryant vs. LeBron James debate that no one really cares about now that LeBron has gone batsh*t insane all over the NBA. 

He picked Kobe.

The pick makes sense. Kobe’s a psychopath/terrible teammate, Jordan’s a psychopath/terrible teammate. Kobe is addicted to winning, Jordan is addicted to winning. Kobe eats rejuvenated blood plasma,  LeBron eats cereal to soulful Impressions grooves. Love that song.

But before we jump to any conclusions about Jordan’s preference in the Kobe vs. LeBron challenge. Let’s take a look at how Jordan  assessed basketball talent during his crowning achievement as an NBA executive — the 2001 NBA draft.

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Another Day, Another Pablo Sandoval Weight Story

Pablo Sandoval and Chocolate Sundae

Pablo Sandoval and Chocolate Sundae

The sun rose in the East this morning. Commuters drank coffee. A Q train stopped between stations because of “train traffic ahead of us”. And once again, Andrew Baggarly wrote a spring training story about San Francisco Giants manager Bruce Bochy’s concern with Pablo Sandoval’s weight.

We shouldn’t fault Baggarly here — Sandoval’s impressive girth* would be a concern if he managed a Dominos, much less played third base for the Giants. Obviously, even in a sport that requires as little exertion as baseball, obesity can limit a athlete’s ability to effectively play their position.

The most obvious place a heavier Sandoval would struggle is defense. Third base requires fast reflexes (which he has in spades) and quickness (which he has in… something less than spades. It’s there, but…).

After finishing 2011 spring training in (what has to be) the best shape of his adult life, Sandoval maintained a .966  fielding percentage at third base, easily a career high in that category (excluding his 17 game 2008 season). His fielding percentage fell off significantly the following year — .954 — when he weighed closer to what he does now.

Despite his heft, 2012 Pablo Sandoval looked like an average or above average third baseman. Furthermore, even though he stumbled early in the season, racking up 5 errors in his first 24 games, he eventually recovered to record only 8 more over the next 78, which brought his errors-per-game rate (.103 E/G) close to 2010-2011 levels.***

Offense, of course, is another story. But now that he has had the troublesome hamate bones in his hands removed, it’s possible we could see a return to the run-production of his first full season — the roly-poly Kung Fu Panda hit .330 with 25 home runs.

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The Can’t-Win Golden State Backcourt

Charles Barkley said a Charles Barkley thing last week.

The Warriors, who have lost four games straight on the road, cannot win with the Stephen Curry/Klay Thompson backcourt. And if you ignore that the Warriors are off to their greatest start to a season since George Carlin narrated Thomas the Tank Engine, he has a point.

Curry and Thompson are two of the best deep threats in the league — they rank second and third in made threes this year, respectively — but if both shooters are cold, it forces David Lee to pick up even more of the weight on offense. And with Andrew Bogut on a minutes restriction, the Warriors lack an additional offensive threat in the paint to help Lee on double teams (Andris Biedrins or Festus Ezeli  can attest to that point).

One solution to this problem would be the addition of a slasher-type guard who could get to the rim and draw defenders off the perimeter, thereby creating space for the shooter(s) and taking some of the pressure off Lee.

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Greivis Vasquez is undderrated

Maybe not underrated, but certainly worth keeping an eye on.

Despite his stellar career at the University of Maryland, Greivis Vasquez was not considered a top prospect when the Memphis Grizzlies drafted him 28th overall in the 2010 draft.

His first year in the league was remarkable for being unremarkable. He averaged only 12 minutes per game, though his per-36 minute stats (10.4 points, 3.1 rebounds, 6.3 assists) hinted at the well-rounded offensive approach he has taken as New Orleans’ starting point guard.

So far this year, Vasquez has delivered on the promise he showed at Maryland.

He average 9.4 dimes per game and is leading the league in total assists — 478 compared to Russell Westbrook’s 412. As New Orleans’ young roster continues to improve, I would expect his per-game assist numbers to improve (particularly if Austin Rivers develops into something other than an offensive black hole). Factor in his 14.8 points per game, Vasquez has become a  genuine double-double threat who can score from both the paint and the perimeter (2012-2013: .522 FG% at the rim, .365 3pt FG%).

More importantly, Vasquez has shown an ability to to modify his approach as he has taken on a greater role facilitating the Hornets’ offense.

Originally drafted as a shooting guard, Vasquez took approximately 30 percent of his shots from mid-range during his sophomore season. The mid-range jumper is widely considered the least efficient shot in basketball, and that certainly applies to Vasquez, who has hit only 41 percent of his mid-range attempts this year, and 43.2 percent the year before that (I’m defining mid-range has anywhere from 10 feet outside the rim to the three-point line).

Thankfully, Vasquez’s improved efficiency from beyond the arc has led  to a greater number of three point attempts per game — 3.1 this season compared to 2.0 in 2011-2012 — and that development has come at the expense of his mid-range attempts. Only 19.9 percent of Vasquez’s shots have come from mid-range this year, compared to 29.6 percent in 2011-2012.

Although his greater reliance on the three point shot has led to a decline in his true shooting percentage, his effective field goal percentage — which takes into account the value of 3pt attempts made over 2pt attempts made — has increased by 10 points over last season.

Greivis Vasquez

Greivis Vasquez